Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.493515 7.700592 9.030772 10.600051 12.395196 14.378889 16.730867
2025-02-16 4.361561 5.899037 7.781593 10.231431 13.307704 17.013262 21.781670
2025-02-23 3.041886 4.633036 6.771792 9.799062 13.906339 19.210137 26.488788
2025-03-02 2.175246 3.698298 5.926583 9.323508 14.249325 20.992282 30.748246
2025-03-09 1.681909 3.157184 5.483544 9.264288 15.062699 23.391842 35.970879
2025-03-16 1.301541 2.687986 5.035287 9.083131 15.615345 25.410728 40.772847
2025-03-23 1.128917 2.527346 5.039098 9.585095 17.226512 29.080667 48.226469
2025-03-30 0.937671 2.280615 4.841491 9.704723 18.212368 31.850348 54.505682
2025-04-06 0.773952 2.044283 4.613101 9.722684 19.006395 34.352945 60.520730
2025-04-13 0.638395 1.830468 4.383748 9.694208 19.696348 36.714511 66.445667
2025-04-20 0.594409 1.815437 4.547459 10.422559 21.786298 41.533691 76.646352
2025-04-27 0.526058 1.722324 4.529054 10.784927 23.231482 45.346538 85.400474
2025-05-04 0.465367 1.637020 4.522280 11.189019 24.830497 49.605492 95.294000
2025-05-11 0.386340 1.477619 4.318507 11.155813 25.592404 52.455823 102.989331
2025-05-18 0.305922 1.285133 3.995328 10.812987 25.700188 54.124548 108.723583
2025-05-25 0.236079 1.097211 3.640088 10.337670 25.475488 55.143428 113.343057
2025-06-01 0.195320 0.991804 3.478504 10.287794 26.127672 57.850068 121.165202
2025-06-08 0.157500 0.879890 3.272364 10.094889 26.443893 59.917724 127.912189
2025-06-15 0.145652 0.868085 3.356745 10.645680 28.453802 65.440514 141.424742
2025-06-22 0.125123 0.809298 3.284643 10.777133 29.520589 69.131846 151.626771
2025-06-29 0.105415 0.744102 3.177070 10.797008 30.328026 72.341340 161.059911
2025-07-06 0.087966 0.680104 3.057849 10.765965 31.008720 75.325596 170.198294
2025-07-13 0.085758 0.696990 3.222421 11.561827 33.747044 82.770216 188.477329